The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) initiative aims to expand cellular connectivity beyond traditional terrestrial networks by integrating satellite and high-altitude platform systems into the 5G framework. Introduced in 3GPP Release 17 (March 2022), and continuing in Releases 18 and 19, NTN supports communication via satellites in Geostationary (GEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and Low Earth Orbit (LEO). These standards address satellite-specific challenges like long signal delays, Doppler shifts, and intermittent connectivity.
NTN is designed to provide global coverage, especially in remote, underserved, or disaster-hit areas. Use cases include emergency services, maritime and aviation connectivity, rural broadband, and IoT in isolated regions. A critical goal is seamless integration, allowing users to switch between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks without disruption or changing devices.
Release 17 focused on NTN support for NB-IoT and LTE-M, while future releases will enhance capabilities for 5G Direct-to-Device services and higher bandwidth needs. The market remains in early development stages, with vendors still shaping hardware and connectivity solutions. Over time, NTN may offer seamless support alongside terrestrial 5G.
This report examines two key NTN use cases:
The report excludes scenarios involving IoT behaviour changes when switching to NTN, as well as backup connectivity use cases. A concept called Notional Connections is introduced to estimate sporadic NTN use. For example, 100 devices each using NTN 1% of the time equals one Notional Connection.
In total, the report identifies over 120 million potential NTN connections, including 57.7 million Notional Connections. This includes both NTN-Centric and NTN-Overspill scenarios, plus non-NTN satellite connections that 3GPP NTN could potentially replace. As the market matures, assumptions in this analysis will need refinement based on real-world data.
