This report provides Transforma Insights’ view on the Autonomous Road Freight Vehicles market. This segment comprises vehicles used for transporting goods on roads in a commercial setting. To be counted as part of this Application Group, vehicles must be capable of operating at Level 3 (L3) of the SAE levels of autonomy.
The autonomous road freight vehicles market is at a nascent stage with enormous potential to disrupt the road freight market. The adoption of L3 autonomous freight vehicles is gaining momentum with multiple governments around the world supporting the testing and commercialisation of autonomous vehicles on roads, although concerns around the safety and performance of these vehicles can act as a deterrence to the pace of mass adoption. The initial focus of most technology companies is proving the concept of commercial L3 vehicles and allowing shippers, carriers, and logistics companies to embrace and familiarise themselves with their usage.
The report provides a detailed definition of the sector, analysis of market development and profiles of the key vendors in the space. It also provides a summary of the current status of adoption and Transforma Insights’ ten-year forecasts for the market. The forecasts include analysis of the number of IoT connections by geography, the technologies used (including splits by 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, LPWA, short range, satellite, and others), as well as the revenue split between module, value-added connectivity and services. A full set of forecast data, including country-level forecasts, sector break downs and public/private network splits, is available through the IoT Forecast tool.
The report examines key factors that are influencing the development of the autonomous road freight vehicles market, including:
This section first discusses the potential of the autonomous road freight market to disrupt the freight market. It then explains the major components (including perception systems, artificial intelligence algorithms, and route mapping capabilities) that help autonomous road freight vehicles to move with little or no human intervention. For instance, the perception system used in these vehicles is supported by AI, LiDAR, cameras, GPS, ultrasonic sensors, motion planning software, and radar systems to sense a vehicle’s surroundings and the road ahead.
It then argues that the advent of autonomous freight vehicles is increasing collaborations between technology companies and truck OEMs, and more activities can be noticed in terms of the testing of autonomous road freight vehicles on public roads, relaxation of AV regulations, and the deployment of such vehicles in real-world environments. Finally, it also expounds upon government initiatives that are supporting the adoption of autonomous road freight vehicles, charts the growth trajectory of these vehicles, and mentions the factors (like the lengthy development process) which may deter this adoption as well.
It then touches upon two new possible business models in this market, that are beginning to emerge beyond traditional models - Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) and Capacity as-a-Service (CaaS) and explains how both these models work. It also outlines some of the positive developments in this industry in recent times. For instance, in December 2024, DHL Supply Chain announced the roll-out of autonomous freight trucks, which will initially be deployed between Dallas to Houston and Fort Worth to El Paso, and initially, a driver will be present for monitoring and safety purposes.
In this section, we consider some of the benefits that autonomous freight vehicles can bring.
This section first argues that the dearth of skilled labour and ageing driver workforce in various parts of the world can impact the trucking industry, which can be solved by autonomy in commercial transportation. However, it also discusses the disadvantage of autonomy in commercial transportation – joblessness for drivers, leading to labour unions opposing the adoption of this technology. For example, the Teamsters Union is lobbying Nevada lawmakers to pass a bill that will require a human driver behind a commercial vehicle weighing more than 26,000 lb (11,793 kg).
This subsection focuses on how autonomous trucks can reduce road accidents (which often take a toll on people’s lives, lead to monetary loss due to insurance claims, and result in productivity loss and heavy penalties) by handling long stretches of highways, allowing drivers more time to relax and rejuvenate, and stepping in if drivers get distracted.
It explains how autonomous trucks will decrease greenhouse gas emissions and reduce fuel consumption through methods such as truck platooning, which is estimated to save around 4% fuel, if the trucks are separated by 40-50 feet. It then explains one of the major benefits of autonomous vehicles – that they can operate 24/7, while a truck driver, in a country like the USA, can only work constantly for 11 hours, which in turn, results in a reduced fleet size and associated greenhouse emissions as well. It also talks about the detrimental effects on the environment from autonomous technologies since they require extreme computing power and massive cloud storage, resulting in GHG emissions, and hence, the need to improve software and hardware accordingly.
This subsection discusses the importance of moving towards a more sustainable and environment-friendly mode of transportation by the road freight industry, which will come through the rapid transition from diesel to electric (D2E), which will also play a key role in the adoption of electric autonomous vehicles. It also talks about some of the challenges associated with electric trucks, like the time required to charge these trucks, their limited range, and lack of charging infrastructure. It then explains that this process has already begun in some countries, and in November 2022, Pilot Company partnered with Volvo to develop and install electric charging stations to support medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across North America.
This section of the report argues that regulations will be the most important factor behind the adoption of autonomous road freight vehicles and then, in a tabular form, it lists the existing regulations in the EU, Japan, Canada, China, South Korea, Germany, Russia, and the United States of America. Case in point, in June 2024, South Korea’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) granted permission for temporary operation of unmanned automated driving vehicles on designated roads. It also provides a few examples of relevant IoT deployments in this application like DHL Supply Chain partnering with Volvo for autonomous trucks.
The key vendors section lists some of the main providers of products and services related to the market, such as Aurora, Applied Intuition, Inceptio, Plus, Torc Robotics, Kodiak Robotics, Einride, and Tesla. The report provides profiles of the various vendors, including aspects most relevant to this Application Group, such as product offerings, pricing, financial results, and technology.
In the market forecasts section, we provide a summary of the forecasts from the Transforma Insights IoT Forecast Database:
The report charts the growth in the number of Autonomous Road Freight Vehicles Revenue Generating Units (RGUs), which will grow from 12,000 in 2024 to 5,58,000 in 2034.
Transforma Insights forecasts are compiled on a country-by-country basis. This report includes a regional summary, showing splits between Australasia, Greater China, North America, Europe, Japan, Latin America, MENA, Russia & Central Asia, South East Asia, South Korea, India & South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Transforma Insights’ IoT forecasts include splits between the various connectivity technologies as follows: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G mMTC, 5G non-mMTC, LPWA (non-mMTC), Satellite, Short Range, and Other.
This section discusses which technologies will be used in the autonomous road freight vehicles application group.
This part of the report discusses the market growth in terms of revenue (module revenue, service wrap revenue, and VAC revenue). Transforma Insights estimates that the revenue in the Autonomous Road Freight Vehicles Application Group will grow at a CAGR of 43%.
