This report provides Transforma Insights’ view on the Autonomous Road Passenger Vehicles market. This segment comprises autonomous vehicles primarily used to transport passengers on the road, including buses, coaches, minivans, and robotaxis, as well as private vehicles, which are capable of operating at Level 3 of the SAE levels of autonomy.
The Autonomous Road Passenger Vehicles market is an emerging market with several obstacles. There aren’t many self-driving cars driven by consumers on public roads yet, but early robotaxi services are already available in select markets. The path to large scale commercialisation and mass deployment remains challenging because of the need for technological advances, lack of comprehensive regulations, and the high cost of hardware. Development of vehicle to everything (V2X) infrastructure will play a significant role in the development of the autonomous road passenger market, as it enables a level of communication and awareness of surroundings that will encourage safe operation of fully autonomous vehicles.
The report provides a detailed definition of the sector, analysis of market development and profiles of the key vendors in the space. It also provides a summary of the current status of adoption and Transforma Insights’ ten-year forecasts for the market. The forecasts include analysis of the number of IoT connections by geography, the technologies used and revenue.
A full set of forecast data, including country-level forecasts, sector breakdowns and public/private network splits, is available through the IoT Forecast tool.
This section begins by talking about the obstacles in this emerging market and explains that out of many automotive manufacturers, only Arcfox, Deepal, Honda, BMW, and Mercedes Benz have received approval to sell Level 3 vehicles. It also claims that technology companies (like Waymo and Auto X) are launching and operating autonomous ride-sharing cars with Level 4 capabilities across major geographies, including Europe, China, the US, the Middle East, and Singapore. In a tabular format, it also charts some examples of autonomous vehicle operations by country, including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Chile, China, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Portugal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
This section expounds on how cost (apart from the deployment of advanced technology) hampers the adoption of autonomous cars. It also suggests some ways to reduce cost (such as shifting away from lidar) and mentions some organisations (like Waymo and Argo), which have been able to reduce the cost to some extent, and others that are experimenting with alternatives to lidar to bring down their costs. For example, Tesla relies on camera-based computer vision rather than lidar in its production vehicles. The company also removed radar sensors from most models in 2021 but reintroduced them in the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X in 2023.
This section discusses the cost at which manufacturers will offer autonomous systems in future and whether it will favour their mass adoption or not.
It argues that the cost at which manufacturers will offer autonomous systems in future is expected to be somewhere between USD5,000 and USD12,000, which will be a restraining factor for mass adoption. It then charts what various OEMs are charging for their autonomous features across various geographies. For instance, BMW initially charged EUR 6,000 (USD 7,046) for its Personal Pilot L3 system in Germany but later discontinued it, replacing it with a Level 2 advanced driver assistance system priced at EUR 1,450 (USD 1,703).
This section talks about the manufacturers that are trying to skip Level 3 autonomy and directly go to Levels 4 or 5. To cite an instance, Ford wants to skip Level 3 and believes that passing the safety transfer control from a computer to the driver in the event of an emergency is a safety challenge.
This section explores the struggles faced by automotive OEMs in the autonomous vehicle
market, forcing them to change their strategy or shut down their AV programs. It then talks in detail about the two major approaches taken by major OEMs, including Mercedes Benz, BMW, Renault, and Nissan.
This section of the report discusses how the lack of comprehensive legislation and liability will also delay the launch of autonomous vehicles. Case in point, Audi cancelled its plans to launch Traffic Jam Pilot autonomous technology (Level 3) in A8 vehicles since the approval process for Level 3 vehicles had not been finalised at the time of its release.
It then explains that the majority of countries are working on their regulatory framework; however, it claims that China, Germany, and Japan are ahead of others. For example, Germany has allowed vehicles to operate at Level 3 and Level 4, and Japan has also allowed for self-driving vehicles to operate at Level 3 and Level 4 (approved in September 2023) and is planning to set up separate autonomous driving lanes throughout the nation. It also explains that although the deployment of autonomous vehicles will expand rapidly, countries like India have denied legalising these vehicles. It also claims that factors like the fear of personal data collection by Chinese AV companies like Baidu and DiDi Chuxing may put a ban on them as well. It then provides a chart, in which AV-related regulations have been discussed in countries including China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the US, and the UK.
In a tabular format, it also charts some countries and their current regulations related to autonomous vehicles. The countries include China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the US, the UAE, and the UK. For instance, in the United Arab Emirates, Law No. 9 of 2023, ‘Regulating the Operation of Autonomous Vehicles in the Emirate of Dubai’ was issued in April 2023 that regulates the operation of autonomous vehicles in Dubai. As per the law, any person or company operating AVs needs a permit from the Roads & Transport Authority (RTA). Any software update made to the vehicle also needs approval from the RTA.
This section of the report defines Vehicle to Everything (V2X) and talks about the several types of communication under V2X (one of them being Vehicle to Infrastructure where vehicles can send and receive information from road infrastructure, such as cameras, and capture data like weather advisories, eventually enhancing road safety).
It then discusses the benefits of V2X communication, like allowing autonomous vehicles to have much greater situational awareness than human drivers. It also charts the countries that are pushing for the adoption of V2X in vehicles. Case in point, in 2016, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration proposed making V2V mandatory in all new vehicles. It also talks about the dominant technologies (like Dedicated Short-Range Communication) that will support V2X use cases.
It also argues that the deployment of V2X solution is advancing particularly fast in China and Europe, primarily due to the availability of both infrastructure and regulatory frameworks. For instance, in China, 90% of roadside infrastructure in cities and on highways is equipped with the technology, and multiple OEMs are integrating the system into their models.
This section draws on the correlation between autonomous vehicles and sustainability. It discusses how the ongoing push towards decarbonisation may adversely affect the growing popularity of autonomous vehicles, since they can increase energy consumption by using extra hardware equipment like cameras and sensors.
It also talks about how AVs can contribute towards sustainability despite the drawbacks. For instance, AVs can reduce traffic congestion and reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions. It also highlights how autonomous vehicles can help address broader Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) challenges associated with conventional vehicles, such as light pollution. It then discusses how autonomous vehicles can enhance passenger safety by reducing road accidents (although these vehicles have been involved in collisions before). For instance, in 2025, a Waymo vehicle was involved in a collision that caused a multi-car accident.
This section discusses the critical question of whether the future of autonomous transportation lies in ‘as a service’ (like ride-hailing) or in ‘individual ownership’. In this context, it explains that the adoption of micromobility would reduce the number of private cars on roads, but this model can only succeed if there is wider availability of transport-as-a-service, competitive pricing, and required infrastructure. However, it also mentions that since cars are considered a status symbol for many, such a shift may also face some resistance.
It then explains that the autonomous vehicle market can replace conventional taxis and expand the ride-sharing market, with significantly lower prices as driver wages will be removed. It also gives some examples of relevant IoT deployments in this application, such as Stellantis partnering with NVIDIA and Foxconn to develop and deploy Level 4 autonomous robotaxis worldwide.
The key vendors section lists some of the main providers of products and services related to the market, such as Baidu, BMW Group, BYD, Geely Group, Honda, Mercedes Benz, Stellantis, Tesla, Toyota, Volvo Cars, Volkswagen Group, Waymo, WeRide, and Zoox. The report provides profiles of the various vendors, including aspects most relevant to this Application Group, such as product offerings, pricing, financial results, and technology.
In the market forecasts section, we provide a summary of the forecasts from the Transforma Insights IoT Forecast Database:
The number of Autonomous Road Passenger Vehicles revenue generating units will grow from 8.5 million in 2025 to 52 million in 2035.
Transforma Insights forecasts are compiled on a country-by-country basis. This report includes a regional summary, showing splits between Australasia, Greater China, North America, Europe, Japan, Latin America, MENA, Russia & Central Asia, South East Asia, South Korea, India & South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Transforma Insights’ IoT forecasts include splits between the various connectivity technologies as follows: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G mMTC, 5G non-mMTC, LPWA (non-mMTC), Satellite, Short Range, and Other.
This section discusses which technologies will be used in the autonomous road passenger vehicles application group.
This part of the report discusses the market growth in terms of revenue (module revenue, service wrap revenue, and VAC revenue). Transforma Insights estimates that the revenue in the Autonomous Road Passenger Vehicles Application Group will grow at a CAGR of 16.16%.
